what is Al-Shabaab is really up to?

Is the world aware of what Al-Shabaab is really up to?

Is the world aware of On Wednesday March 10th in Mogadishu, Somalia  Al-Shabaab forces were within one mile of the nation’s presidential palace which was being defended by troops of the U.S.-backed Transitional Federal Government. 

Prior to this the BBC reported on March 1st that Al-Shabaab was blockading deliveries of food aid from the U.N.'s World Food Program (WFP) to over 36,000 Somalis, displaced by internal wars.  Al-Shabaab accused WFP of ruining the local economy by distributing free imported food some of which they maintained had expired.  Al-Shabaab also insisted WFP was pursuing a political agenda.

On March 5th Reuters reported that Al-Shabaab have banned English and science studies in schools in the southern Afmadow town after schools there ignored the rebels' call for fighters: "They asked us to contribute students to their militia so that they can fight for them, but we rejected their proposal," said one teacher who wished to remain anonymous.  Another quote came over the telephone from Ali Mowlid Mohamud, a tribal elder in Afmadow: "The Islamic administration closed education centres and ordered them to stop teaching English which they said is a western language.  They told schools, 'We know everyone who is going to be a spy for western governments learns this language.'"...

Since 9/11 the average man on the street anywhere in the world will know the name Al-Qaeda and what that represents.  Ask the same regarding Al-Shabaab and the majority will shake their heads quizzically.  Somalia is now making international news headlines regularly but usually with regard to their infamous pirates.  The Islamic militant Al-Shabaab group could soon supersede the pirates with alarming news headlines.  They are heavily armed and are determined to defeat the country’s UN-backed government and impose strict Sharia law.  Already they control most of the southern part of Somalia and the majority of the capital city.  Within these areas Sharia law is interpreted at its most extreme.  The mullahs have ordered executions, floggings and the cutting off of hands and feet as well as banning films, dancing at weddings and any form of football. Tristan McConnell reported in Global Post that last year the young winner of a Koran recital competition was given an AK47 rifle and an anti-tank mine.   As the caliph Umar is supposed to have said when ordering the library of Alexandria to be burned: "If the books agree with the Qur'an, they are superfluous. If they disagree with it, they are heretical."   Currently Al-Shabaab encourages the learning of Arabic and Islamic studies but only within strictly doctrinal interpretations.

Al-Shabaab was originally the militant wing of the Islamic Courts Union which was the group that controlled Somalia prior to the country's invasion by Ethiopian forces in 2006.  Since 2007 Al- Shabaab has claimed to be an ally of Al-Qaeda though this link seemed tenuous until February this year when A-Shabaab announced on its website: “We have agreed to join the international jihad of Al Qaeda,” signed by its leader.
During the last few years Al-Shabaab has attracted increasing numbers of battle-hardened mujahideen from Pakistan, Afghanistan and Iraq, all of whom come to fight against the UN and US backed Transitionla Federal Government (TFG).  These Mujahideen have been joined by other radicals from the Somali diaspora in the United States and Europe.  It is in this context that just recently Britain and Canada have joined the United States in banning Al-Shabaab recruiting, propaganda and fund raising operations in their countries, and have placed Al-Shabaab on the list of recognized Terrorist organisations. The identity of Al-Shabaab is slowly becoming less localized and more that of an international, now Al-Qaeda, insurgent group.
Nonetheless, the main fighting body of Al-Shabaab consists mainly of local Somali young men.  Why?  For a young man living in Somalia, what should he do?  There is no work apart from fighting, so there is a choice between fighting for the TFG or Al-Shabaab.  If Al-Shabaab is in local control, there is little choice, particularly since they conduct enforced recruitment.  Al-Shabaab also represents the Muslim faith whilst the TFG, being US and UN backed does not have that image. 

Somalia’s tragedy rests with the failed government of the TFG.  The President, Sheikh SHARIF Sheikh Ahmed is a former Commander in Chief of the Islamic Courts Union (ICU).  He was elected in January 2009 as the country’s big hope with the added appeal of his religious background to be able to unite the warring tribes and restore peace.   US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton described him as the “best hope” for the war-torn nation of Somalia.   Perhaps this was where it all went wrong.  By supplying US and UN support, the TFG became synonymous with the capitalist infidel West and so allowed itself to be thus portrayed by Al-Shabaab, which in turn has given Al-Shabaab more appeal to the leaders of Al-Qaeda, who are always ready to exploit any US vulnerability.

Where does the UNHCR come into all of this?  Al-Shabaab is now ostensibly blocking WFP deliveries but an investigation into Al-Shabaab has revealed some nasty dealings between themselves and WFP operatives on the ground.  Is Al-Shabaab grabbing the food aid for themselves instead?  According to UNDP a recent report on Somalia from the U.N. Monitoring Group claims that Somali contractor, Abdullah Ali "Luway," has been taking payments from WFP and UNICEF to enrich himself and Al-Shabaab in Baidoa. Ali is reported to be the local financier of Al-Shabab and friend of their leader Muktar Robow Abu Mansour.  He is also suspected of being involved in the al-Shabab looting of the U.N. compound in Baidoa last July.  So it is no surprise that the WFP aid to Somalia is fraught with problems, of which Al-Shabaab is at the bottom in several different ways.

Most importantly though, according to UNHCR the fighting instigated by Al-Shabaab has caused over 33,000 Somalis to be displaced since February with a further 8,000 trapped inside Mogadishu as the fighting continues around them. Andrej Mahecic, the agency's spokesman summed it up as follows: .

"UNHCR is extremely worried about the worsening situation for the civilian population in Somalia which is, once again, exposed to relentless and indiscriminate fighting in Mogadishu and elsewhere in the country. We estimate that since the beginning of the year, more than 100 000 Somali civilians have been forced to flee their homes across the country. As the fighting rages on, aid agencies cannot access and assist these extremely vulnerable IDPs (internally displaced people)."

So the Somalis will get poorer, if that is possible.  Their country will be even more ravaged by fighting and Al-Shabaab will be able to recruit more willing fighters in such a hopeless environment, unless the country can be restored to stability.  Certainly this is what all of Somalia’s African neighbours wish, as does the international community.  It is vital that aid offered comes from the African Union  nations, not US.  Why?  Firstly the stabilizing authority must not have a sniff of US image which would give Al-Qaeda and Al-Shabaab the opportunity to exploit anti-reliigious or anti-western fervour. Secondly, Somalia must be rendered stable in a way that it can rebuild its economy and reap its own rewards, which is perfectly possible.  African Union countries will be sensitive to local conditions and culture something to which US authorities might find it difficult to relate.

Somalia lies on the Davie Fracture Zone fault line which is thought to have potentially huge oil reserves, as yet untapped. "It's there. There's no doubt there's oil there," said Thomas E. O'Connor, the principal petroleum engineer for the World Bank, who headed an in-depth, three-year study of oil prospects in the Gulf of Aden off Somalia's northern coast.   "You don't know until you study a lot further just how much is there," O'Connor said. "But it has commercial potential. It's got high potential ... once the Somalis get their act together."  Nick Wadhams’s latest article in Time magazine points out that  “ Explorers salivate in particular at the prospect of peace in Somalia. Oil reserves in the blocks licensed to two small oil companies, Africa Oil and Range Resources, could contain as much as 10 billion bbl.” Wadhams adds that oil exploration in Somali is unlikely to commence in the immediate future but he does go on to say that oil companies are less intimidated by the political situation than might appear to be the case. 

If the country can reorganise its social, political and economic structures, it would nullify the local appeal of Al-Shabaab.  However, time is running out.  This must be a race before Al-Shabaab spreads its tentacles so far and wide it becomes impossible to remove at a later stage.              

March 14th 2010