How does Saudi view Yemen?

Having unruly and chaotic Yemen as a neighbour must be like dealing with Medusa’s head.  As son as one snake is squashed the next slithers out to strike.  For Saudi Arabia, it must be like feeding dollar bills down a man-hole, especially since the rebel Yemeni Houthis, members of the Zaydi sect of Shia Islam, in the North of Yemen, invaded Saudi in November 2009 and captured Mount al-Doud.  The fact that Saudi has retaken this land and an uneasy cease-fire currently exists between them, is little recompense for the high Saudi casualty rate among civilians and military caused by the competent guerillas.  Saudi has no wish to be involved in a long drawn out war despite the rebels’ argument that Saudi is supporting the Yemen government.  The rebels claim, that financially and politically the Yemen government marginalizes them, is not of direct concern to Saudi.  However, the fact that Yemen cannot control its insurgents on the Saudi border does make it inevitably Saudi’s business.

In Saudi eyes, Yemen is a mis-managed, ill governed, corrupt and poverty-stricken liability, yet it is in Saudi interests that Yemen remains politically stable.  The most obvious concern is that Yemen is now the central location for AQAP (Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula).  Local conditions are ideal for AQAP to flourish.  Desperate poverty, a decline in oil and water resources, high unemployment, and ineffective social and economic programmes provide an atmosphere of utter hopelessness, the perfect feeding ground for AQAP. 

By contrast Saudi has been highly effective in its campaign against Al-Qaeda within its own borders.  As a result many Al-Qaeda moved into Yemen, whence they attempt to return to Saudi laden with arms and/or explosives.  Since the failed attempt to kill Prince Mohammed bin Naif, the Saudi deputy interior minister, in August2009 by a suicide bomber, Saudi vigilance has increased with effect.  It is nonetheless galling to watch their neighbor failing so lamentably to cope.  This frustration is compounded by Saudi’s considerable dollar aid to the Yemen government and to the local tribe leaders who wield substantial influence, in order to enable Yemen to achieve internal stability.
No direct link has been found between the Houthis and AQAP but Saudi is highly aware of how AQAP will exploit any insurgency.  Christopher Boucek, an associate at the Carnegie Endowment’s Middle East programme states: “The Saudis are exasperated with Yemen. They do not feel they have a partner on the other side of the border. Yet if the conflict continues, Saudis risk losing support from the regional tribes.”

Change may be about to occur.  The upcoming generation of Saudi leaders is demonstrating a new lack of tolerance for Yemen mismanagement of its insurgents.  The deputy defence minister, Prince Khalid bin Sultan was in charge of the military campaign on the Yemen border.  Now Prince Khalid plans to create a 10 km “buffer zone” on both sides of the border as well as build new towns for the Saudi displaced population, i.e. he sees this as a long term measure for an on-going situation. 

Saudi has also stepped up its vigilance and become highly effective in its intelligence gathering and.  In mid-February Saudi Security forces arrested Ahmed Kuteim al-Huzali, ranked number 10 on the country’s most wanted list of 85 terrorists.  They are creating in addition, a force of 35,000 men to be trained in security to defend the country’s oil industry installations and pipelines.

This attitude of shoring up their interests has been accompanied by a questioning of the aid given to Yemen by Saudi.  Does the large amount of Saudi aid reach its goal or does it simply “disappear” maybe even into funding Saudi’s own enemies? 
The Yemen government now openly allying with Sunni leaders in attempts to quell the Northern Shia Houthis has exacerbated this disquiet. The problem lies with the political and religious affiliations of the country’s leaders. Yemen must take care not to be  perceived to be supporting AQAP through the affiliations Yemen’s President, President Ali Abdullah Saleh and the current military commander leading the fight against the rebels, Ali Muhsin, who are both members of the extreme right wing Sunni Islam sect of Salafists.  According to Muhammad al-Mutawakil, a political science professor at Sanaa University, "The Salafists and al-Qaeda are like the two faces of the moon. The Salafists are the light face and al-Qaeda is the dark face. They have the same culture."  The president has sanctioned Salafi extremism in Yemen and many high-ranking officials in government and military circles are of Salafi persuasion. 

This is thought to be one of the reasons why Yemen has limited its welcome of US led aid.  Even the “Friends of Yemen” group following the London conference in January 2010 is restricted in only being able to offer passive help, i.e. dollar amounts, since Yemen will not allow active help to implement reforms.  Yemen says it cannot use Foreign Aid personnel – only Yemenis.  If these Yemenis are then strict Salafists, there is an immediate potential conflict of interest.  The Yemen Government may declare it is sending Salafists to collect intelligence and actively fight the Shiites in the North, but the loyalty lines are exceedingly muddled.  The former Yemen Prime Minister and current advisor to President Saleh, Abdel-Karim al-Iriyani put it into perspective when he said: "Using these extremist people, if they are with you today, they are prone to be against you tomorrow. That comes not without danger."

So how would Saudi view this?  They must perceive the spread of Salafism with mixed feelings since it was initially encouraged by Saudi back in the 1980’s and 90’s.  This was a time when Yemenis flooded into Saudi for work and adopted the conservative Saudi Wahhabism, which they then took back to Yemen. Saudi Wahhabism is akin to Salafsim.  What is more, Saudi actually funded Wahhabi schools in Yemen.  So having encouraged this right wing form of Islam, now it has become linked to Al-Qaeda, the Saudis find they have created their own potential monster.

Given this situation how likely is it that Prince Khalid and his sympathizers will sanction meaningful financial aid for Yemen’s social and economic reform especially if there is a shortage of visible results.  It is well recognised that the most successful solution to prevent the increase of insurgency is the provision of stable, reliable social and economic programmes.  Fortunately for Yemen, the Saudi group supporting investment in Yemen seems to be in the ascendant.

Sunday’s 19th Saudi-Yemeni Coordination Council meeting in Riyadh has given Yemen an unimaginable array of grants and financial schemes.  Crown Prince Sultan Bin Abdul Aziz, the Saudi Deputy Premier, Defense and Aviation Minister and Inspector General, and Yemeni Premier Dr. Ali Muhammad Mujawwar have agreed projects in excess of $114.5 million to include a new energy plant, sewage and water plants, funds for a central hospital, as well as educational facilities.  It is an amazing pledge from Saudi to Yemen, particularly when seen in conjunction with Saudi’s contributions to United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) for aid for Yemenis displaced by the border wars.  The list of Saudi donations is endless, covering every aspect of economic and social welfare from malaria treatment to the maintenance of rural roads to the inclusion of Yemen in a feasibility study in the Inter-Gulf Railways project.  At the last Saudi-Yemeni Coordination Council meeting a similar panoply of measures and investments were given to Yemen.  Numbers of doctors, teachers and engineers are educated at Saudi universities quite apart from investment in the infrastructure and industry of the country.

The US is Yemen’s second largest aid donor, but it is Saudi who is by far the biggest contributor.  Is Yemen Saudi’s wayward child?  Perhaps.  They are certainly umbilically linked.  However, given current international focus on Yemen, the poorest Arab country in the world may recover with not altogether altruistic help from the richest Arab country in the world.

March 3rd 2010