Al-Quaeda and the Gates of Tears

The Bab El Mandeb are the straits between Dijbouti and the South-Wesr tip projecitng from the Yemen peninsular into the Gulf of Aden at the mouth of the Red Sea.  Through this 20 mile long passage roughly 300 million barrels of oil are transported every day aiming for the Suez Canal in one direction or the Indian Ocean the other.  The Bab El-Mandeb is at the Western end of the IRTC (the International Recommended Transit Corridor) along which shipping is encouraged to travel in covoys accompanied by Operation Atalanta Warhsips who patrol these waters against the now well chronicled threat of Somali pirate atacks.  The IRTC is 500 miles long so this occupies a fair number of the warships availbale in the area.

The Somlai pirates are recognised as being the perceived threat.  Their success rate has been high with increasing numbers of ships hi-jacked and then moved into Somali waters close to the pirates' lairs until an agreed ranson is paid and the vessels and crew released.  However, so successful have the pirates been that Al-Quaida is turing covetous eyes on the Gates of Tears.  Record single ransoms paid to the Somali pirates last year tripled from $3 million to $9 million.  Control of the Gates of Tears would undoubtedly bring rich financial rewards.

However, the real importance of the Bab El-Mandeb is its strategic control of the Red Sea and so the Suez Canal.  Being a major world shipping lane, this is an obviolus target for terrorist atention.  Richard Barrett, the United Nations Coordinator of the Al-Qaida and Taliban Monitoring Team has pointed out "Al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) has developed much more strength which exceeds that of the other Al-Qaida branches." Worryingly, Said al-Shihri, former Guantanamo inmate and now Deputy Leader of AQAP  has recently issued a message over the internet to the effect: “taking control of Bab El-Mandeb, will constitute an escalating victory: the Jews will be crushed in a vise, because it is through the Strait that the United States brings its support to Israel.”

Djibouti, on the Western side of the Bab El-Mandeb is keenly aware of the compounded threats of Somali piracy and militant AQAP. Sharing a border with Somalia, Djibouti has an interest in seeing Somalia stabilize internally. In fact on January 28, 2010 Djibouti agreed to send 450 peacekeeping troops to Mogadishu within the month, to bolster the fragile Western-backed government against Al Shabbab  and Hizbul Islam.  These are both Islamic terrorist groups whose main aim is to impose Sharia Law in the country which would play straight into AQAP’s hands. 

However, Djibouti’s long and vulnerable coastline is protected by its coastguard which may be effective but is too small to defend the shores from the scope of AQAP.  Fortunately there are reports that the European Union defence experts are looking at proposals to support the coast guard forces of Dijbouti and other nations around the Horn of Africa region.  If these come to fruition they will be civilian based to complement the increased presence of international warships.

Such overt international coastguard support is less easy to provide on the East side of the Bab El-Mandeb in the Yemen where  AQAP is far stronger and more deeply entrenched .  The US backed Yemeni government has only a sketchy hold over the country and AQAP militancy has a genuine appeal to the poorest nation in the Arab world.  Following the “Friends of Yemen” conference in London in January 2010, international resources have been pledged to support Yemen in its fight against AQAP terrorists.  The concern is that the Yemen government agencies are almost incapable of introducing the necessary measures to counter AQAP, either ideologically or practically. Unemployment runs at 40% and it is estimated that there are 60 million weapons spread amongst a population of 20 million. AQAP’s leader in Yemen is Nasir al-Wahayshi, formerly secretary to Bin Laden.  Al Shihiri is an Al-Quaeda recidivist, even despite his de-programming after his spell in Guantanamo, in Riyadh’s Prince Mohammed bin Nayef Centre for Counselling and Care, the Saudi equivalent of London’s Priory!  The brilliant callibre of these leaders’ charisma and genius cannot be underestimated which makes them lethal protagonists of AQAP’s terrorism.  Mohammed al-Ahmadi, a Yemeni journalist who covers Al-Qaeda in the Arab Peninsula said: “All operations are locally planned and implemented. There may be encouragement from the core leadership, but nothing more.”  This locally based leadership and ability to execute terrorist attacks makes them incredibly difficult to defeat. 

AQAP are now openly linked to Al-Shabbab, a militant Islamic group who are strengthening their ties with factions of the Somali pirates as well as fomenting militant unrest within Somalia.  It takes little imagination to see how AQAP might sponsor Al-Shabbab to cause terror and chaos through the Bab El-Mandeb which will be only too correctly called The Gates of Tears.  The international security forces are facing yet another battle front against the canniest of operators.  Shipping companies would do well to take extra security pre-cautions in advance of their ships passing through these pirate-infested waters.  It will not be enough to rely on Operation Atalatanta protection.